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Distributed Causality in the SDG Network: Evidence from Panel VAR and Conditional Independence Analysis

Fahim, Md Muhtasim Munif, Imran, Md Jahid Hasan, Debnath, Luknath, Shill, Tonmoy, Molla, Md. Naim, Pranto, Ehsanul Bashar, Saad, Md Shafin Sanyan, Karim, Md Rezaul

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The achievement of the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is dependent upon strategic resource distribution. We propose a causal discovery framework using Panel Vector Autoregression, along with both country-specific fixed effects and PCMCI+ conditional independence testing on 168 countries (2000-2025) to develop the first complete causal architecture of SDG dependencies. Utilizing 8 strategically chosen SDGs, we identify a distributed causal network (i.e., no single 'hub' SDG), with 10 statistically significant Granger-causal relationships identified as 11 unique direct effects. Education to Inequality is identified as the most statistically significant direct relationship (r = -0.599; p < 0.05), while effect magnitude significantly varies depending on income levels (e.g., high-income: r = -0.65; lower-middle-income: r = -0.06; non-significant). We also reject the idea that there exists a single 'keystone' SDG. Additionally, we offer a proposed tiered priority framework for the SDGs namely, identifying upstream drivers (Education, Growth), enabling goals (Institutions, Energy), and downstream outcomes (Poverty, Health). Therefore, we conclude that effective SDG acceleration can be accomplished through coordinated multi-dimensional intervention(s), and that single-goal sequential strategies are insufficient.


Intersectional Fairness via Mixed-Integer Optimization

Němeček, Jiří, Kozdoba, Mark, Kryvoviaz, Illia, Pevný, Tomáš, Mareček, Jakub

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The deployment of Artificial Intelligence in high-risk domains, such as finance and healthcare, necessitates models that are both fair and transparent. While regulatory frameworks, including the EU's AI Act, mandate bias mitigation, they are deliberately vague about the definition of bias. In line with existing research, we argue that true fairness requires addressing bias at the intersections of protected groups. We propose a unified framework that leverages Mixed-Integer Optimization (MIO) to train intersectionally fair and intrinsically interpretable classifiers. We prove the equivalence of two measures of intersectional fairness (MSD and SPSF) in detecting the most unfair subgroup and empirically demonstrate that our MIO-based algorithm improves performance in finding bias. We train high-performing, interpretable classifiers that bound intersectional bias below an acceptable threshold, offering a robust solution for regulated industries and beyond.


A tensor network formalism for neuro-symbolic AI

Goessmann, Alex, Schütte, Janina, Fröhlich, Maximilian, Eigel, Martin

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The unification of neural and symbolic approaches to artificial intelligence remains a central open challenge. In this work, we introduce a tensor network formalism, which captures sparsity principles originating in the different approaches in tensor decompositions. In particular, we describe a basis encoding scheme for functions and model neural decompositions as tensor decompositions. The proposed formalism can be applied to represent logical formulas and probability distributions as structured tensor decompositions. This unified treatment identifies tensor network contractions as a fundamental inference class and formulates efficiently scaling reasoning algorithms, originating from probability theory and propositional logic, as contraction message passing schemes. The framework enables the definition and training of hybrid logical and probabilistic models, which we call Hybrid Logic Network. The theoretical concepts are accompanied by the python library tnreason, which enables the implementation and practical use of the proposed architectures.


Variational Approximations for Robust Bayesian Inference via Rho-Posteriors

Khribch, EL Mahdi, Alquier, Pierre

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The $ρ$-posterior framework provides universal Bayesian estimation with explicit contamination rates and optimal convergence guarantees, but has remained computationally difficult due to an optimization over reference distributions that precludes intractable posterior computation. We develop a PAC-Bayesian framework that recovers these theoretical guarantees through temperature-dependent Gibbs posteriors, deriving finite-sample oracle inequalities with explicit rates and introducing tractable variational approximations that inherit the robustness properties of exact $ρ$-posteriors. Numerical experiments demonstrate that this approach achieves theoretical contamination rates while remaining computationally feasible, providing the first practical implementation of $ρ$-posterior inference with rigorous finite-sample guarantees.